Electoral Consequences of Violent Crime: Evidence from Venezuela
Resumen
To what extent to do voters hold political incumbents accountable for policy outcomes? This paper considers retrospective voting in the context of violent crime. Using a novel panel data set on county -and neighborhood- level homicide incidence and vote shares in Venezuela, I nd that, relative to other policy outcomes such as cash transfers, voters are generally unresponsive to changes in homicide incidence. However, responsiveness varies with the type of election and with the nature of local crime control institutions (which change within municipality over time). Noting the role of external shocks (for example, from drug enforcement activities in neighboring Colombia) in producing violence in Venezuela, I interpret these results as evidence that voters (correctly) view homicide outcomes as weak signals of incumbent political quality. Theresults are therefore consistent with rational retrospective models of voting behavior.
Materia
País / Región
Fecha
2014-05Citar de esta publicación
Item perteneciente a la Colección
Autor
Kronick, DorothyItems Relacionados
Police reform, training and crime: experimental evidence from colombia's plan cuadrantes
The Plan Nacional de Vigilancia Comunitaria por Cuadrantes (PNVCC) is a new police patrolling program introduced in the eight major cities of Colombia ...
Crime under Lockdown: The Impact of COVID-19 on Citizen Security in the City of Buenos Aires
This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown on criminal activity in the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina. We find ...
Moving Citizens and Deterring Criminals: Innovation in Public Transport Facilities
This paper explores the relationship between urban public transportation innovation and crime. In 2004, the city of Medellin in Colombia developed an ...