When Does Family Size Matter for Children’s Education? Causal Evidence from Latin America
Abstract
We examine the relationship between family size and children’s human capital, commonly known as the quantity–quality trade-off in Latin America. Despite historically high fertility rates
and a rapid convergence toward levels observed in high-income countries, evidence on this trade-off in the region remains limited. Using census data from five countries and a twin instrumental variable strategy, we estimate the causal effect of family size on educational outcomes. We document a trade-off in households with three or more children: an additional sibling increases the likelihood of falling behind in school, reduces primary school completion, and lowers total years of schooling. The magnitude of the trade-off is related to tighter financial constraints, more traditional gender norms, and insufficient local
school supply. Identifying the contexts in which these trade-offs arise is essential for understanding how fertility patterns shape
gaps in human capital accumulation and for informing policies aimed at narrowing intergenerational disparities.
Subject
Country / Region
Date
2026-03-02Cite this publication
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Author
Berniell, LucilaBonavida, Cristian
de la Mata, Dolores
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