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    The Asymmetric Impact of Trade Shocks on Rural and Urban Areas: Evidence from Chile

    Abstract
    This paper examines the causal effects of trade shocks on local labor markets (LLMs), with a focus on the rural–urban divide. In particular, it analyzes the impact of China’s integration into global trade on Chilean LLMs with varying degrees of rurality. The identification strategy exploits variation in pre-shock industrial specialization across LLMs and changes over time in global Chinese import penetration and industry-specific export demand. We study short-run effects (1996–2006) and medium run dynamics (through 2022). Urban LLMs, more exposed to import competition, experienced declines in income, increases in poverty and informality, and persistent schooling losses. Rural LLMs, linked to primary sectors benefiting from Chinese demand, saw sustained income growth and reductions in poverty and informality. These asymmetric effects likely contributed to narrowing regional disparities and underscore the importance of geographic exposure in shaping the distributional consequences of global trade integration.
    Subject
    Comercio internacional | Evaluación de impacto | China | Finanzas | Investigación social | Equidad e inclusión social | Ciudades | Pueblos nativos
     
    Country / Region
    Chile
    URI
    https://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/2522
    Date
    2025-09-09
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    • 6.1 Documentos de trabajo en investigación socioeconómica
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    The Asymmetric Impact of Trade Shocks on Rural and Urban Areas.pdf (5.931Mb)
    Author
    Albina, Iván
    César, Andrés
    Ciaschi, Matías
    Falcone, Guillermo
    Gasparini, Leonardo
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