Illegal Migration and Weather Shocks: Evidence from Rural Mexico
Resumo
We study the effect of weather shocks on legal and illegal migration from rural Mexico to the US. First, we find that shocks in the wet season on precipitation and temperature increase migration. The increment is entirely driven by illegal migrants. Second, we propose a mechanism to explain this result: the effect of weather on agricultural production. We find that shocks on precipitation and temperature decrease total harvested land and corn production. Third, we show that young and unwealthy workers are more sensitive to weather shocks. Lastly, we use climate projections to have a first glance on the impact that climate change will have on migration. We find that a shift of the size of climate change would double the number of illegal migrants. Since climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of weather shocks, our findings are increasingly relevant.
Assunto
País / Región
Data
2022-12-28Cite esta publicação
Item que pertence à coleção
Autor
Danza, FacundoLee, Eungik
Items Relacionados
Taking One for the Team: Shocks at Destination and Households' Supply of Migrants
We study how unemployment shocks in the United States affect Mexican households’ migration decisions. We emphasize households at origin (as op-posed to ...
From maize to haze: agricultural shocks and growth of the mexican drug sector
We examine how commodity price shocks experienced by rural producers affect the drug trade in Mexico. Our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the ...
Deforestation, Institutions, and Property Rights: Evidence from land titling to indigenous peoples and local communities in Ecuador
Deforestation is a matter of pressing global concern, contributing to declining ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and ultimately climate change ...