Long-Term Effects of a Commodity Boom: Rubber Slavery in the Amazon
Abstract
This study examines the lasting impact of the
Amazon Rubber Boom (1870-1914) on contemporary income,
inequality, Indigenous presence, and forest conservation. Em
pirically we combine variation in historical rubber distribution
with an instrumental variable strategy using FAO-based rubber
suitability and a Regression Discontinuity design around con
cession boundaries. Municipalities with greater rubber presence
experienced short-term gains in 1920 but long-run reversals by
2010, showing lower income, population density, and higher
inequality and Indigenous extinction. Grid-level analyses across
the Amazon further show that historical rubber suitability is
associated with lower economic activity and sparser population
today, alongside greater deforestation. The findings, consistent
across Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, indicate that the rub
ber boom’s short-lived wealth reinforced extractive institutions
and violence against Indigenous peoples, leaving long-lasting
economic, social, and environmental scars across the Amazon.
Subject
Date
2026-02-24Cite this publication
Belongs to collection
Author
Araujo, DanielLaudares, Humberto
Murillo, Dafne
Paredes, Hector
Valencia Caicedo, Felipe
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